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AUGUST 2003 BLACKOUT
This blackout is a striking instance of a complex system
undergoing
cascading failure. How likely are large blackouts, how does
overall system loading cause cascading failure and what are the
pitfalls in mitigating
blackout risks in complex systems?
Research using methods ranging from power system
engineering and risk analysis to criticality and self-organization
gives insights
into these questions.
Towards
quantifying
cascading
blackout
risk
I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, J. Kim, H. Ren,
Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VII,
Charleston SC USA, August 2007
Initial
review
of
methods
for
cascading
failure
analysis
in
electric
power
transmission
systems
IEEE PES CAMS Task Force on Cascading Failure
IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Pittsburgh
PA USA, July 2008
Foundations
for
complex
systems
research
in
the
physical
sciences
and
engineering
J. Guckenheimer, J. Ottino, et al.
Report from an NSF Workshop in September 2008
Critical
points
and
transitions
in
an
electric
power
transmission
model
for
cascading
failure blackouts
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman,
Chaos, vol 12, no 4, December 2002, pp 985-994
copyright 2002 American Institute of Physics; official link
B.A.
Carreras et al.,Chaos, 12, 985 (2002)
Blackout
mitigation
assessment
in
power
transmission
systems
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman
Thirty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2003
Complex
dynamics
of
blackouts
in
power
transmission
systems
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman
Chaos, vol 14, no 3, September 2004, pp 643-652
copyright 2002 American Institute of Physics; official
link
B.A.
Carreras et al.,Chaos, 14, 643 (2004)
The
impact
of
various
upgrade
strategies
on
the
long-term
dynamics
and
robustness
of the transmission grid
D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson
Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets, conference at
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, December 2004
Risk
assessment
in
complex
interacting
infrastructure
systems
D. E. Newman, B. Nkei, B. A. Carreras, I. Dobson, V. E. Lynch, P.
Gradney
Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2005
Understanding
the
effect
of
risk
aversion
on
risk
U. Bhatt, D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, I. Dobson
Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2005
Interdependent
risk
in
interacting
infrastructure
systems
B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, P. Gradney, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson
Fortieth Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2007
Evaluating
the
effect
of
upgrade,
control
and
development
strategies
on
robustness
and
failure risk of the power transmission grid
D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson
Forty-first Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2008
Long-term
effect
of
the
n-1
criterion
on
cascading
line
outages
in
an evolving
power transmission grid
H. Ren, I. Dobson,
B.A. Carreras
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol 23, no 3, August 2008, pp
1217-1225
A
simple
model
for
the
reliability
of
an
infrastructure
system
controlled
by
agents
B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, M. Zeidenberg
Forty-second Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2009
Cascading
dynamics
and
mitigation
assessment
in
power
system
disturbances
via a hidden failure model
J. Chen, J.S. Thorp, I. Dobson
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol 27,
no 4, May 2005, pp 318-326
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.12.003
Dynamical
and
probabilistic
approaches
to
the
study
of
blackout
vulnerability
of the power transmission grid
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson
Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2004
A
branching
process
approximation
to
cascading
load-dependent
system
failure
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2004
Probabilistic
load-dependent
cascading
failure
with
limited
component
interactions
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and System, Vancouver Canada,
May 2004
A
criticality approach to monitoring cascading failure risk and failure
propagation in transmission systems
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets, conference at
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, December 2004
A
loading-dependent
model
of
probabilistic
cascading
failure
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences,
vol 19,
no 1, Jan 2005, pp 15-32
Estimating
failure
propagation
in
models
of
cascading
blackouts
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, B. Nkei, D.E. Newman
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, vol
19, no 4, October 2005, pp 475-488
(journal publication of conference paper in Probability Methods Applied
to Power
Systems, Ames Iowa, 2004)
An
estimator
of
propagation
of
cascading
failure
I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman
Thirty-ninth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Kauai,
Hawaii, January 2006
An
approach
to
statistical
estimation
of
cascading
failure
propagation
in
blackouts
K.R. Wierzbicki,
I. Dobson
CRIS, Third International Conference on Critical
Infrastructures, Alexandria VA, Sept. 2006
Criticality
in
a
cascading
failure
blackout
model
D.P. Nedic, I. Dobson, D.S. Kirschen, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol 28,
2006, pp 627-633
(journal publication of paper in 15th Power Systems
Computation Conference, Liege Belgium, August
2005)
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2006.03.006
Where
is
the
edge
for
cascading
failure?:
challenges
and
opportunities
for
quantifying
blackout risk
I. Dobson
IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,
Tampa FL USA, June 2007
Implications
of
an
inverse
branching
aftershock
sequence
model
D.L. Turcotte, S.G. Abaimov, I. Dobson, J.B. Rundle
Physical Review E, vol 79, no 1, 016101, 2009
On
voltage collapse in electric power systems
H.-D. Chiang, I. Dobson, R.J. Thomas, J.S. Thorp, L. Fekih-Ahmed
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 2, May 1990, pp. 601-611
Observations on the geometry of saddle node bifurcation
and voltage collapse in electric power systems
I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, Vol. 39, No. 3, March 1992,
pp. 240-243
Point of collapse methods applied to AC/DC power systems
C.A. Canizares, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco, I. Dobson, W.F. Long
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 7., No. 2, May 1992, pp. 673-683
Voltage collapse in power systems
I. Dobson, H. Glavitsch, C.C. Liu, Y. Tamura, K. Vu
IEEE Circuits and Devices Magazine, vol. 8, no. 3, May 1992, pp. 40-45
Voltage collapse precipitated by the immediate change in stability
when generator reactive power limits are encountered
I. Dobson, L. Lu
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 39, no. 9, Sept. 1992,
pp. 762-766
Q-V Curve interpretations of energy measures for voltage security
T.J. Overbye, I. Dobson, C.L. DeMarco
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 331-340
Chapter 2: Basic Theoretical Concepts
I. Dobson, T. Van Cutsem, C. Vournas, C. DeMarco,
M. Venkatasubramanian, T. Overbye, C. Canizares
in
Voltage Stability Assessment: Concepts, Practices and Tools
IEEE PES Power system stability subcommittee special publication
IEEE product number SP101PSS, ISBN 0780378695, 2002.
The
irrelevance
of
load
dynamics
for
the
loading
margin
to
voltage
collapse
and its sensitivities
I. Dobson
Bulk power system voltage phenomena III, Voltage stability, security
and control
ECC/NSF workshop, Davos, Switzerland, August 1994, pp. 509-518
Sensitivity of the loading margin to voltage collapse with respect to
arbitrary parameters
S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 12, no. 1, February 1997, pp. 262-272
Contingency ranking for voltage collapse via sensitivities from a
single nose curve
S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 14, no. 1, February 1999, pp. 232-240
New
methods
for
computing
a
closest
saddle
node
bifurcation
and
worst case load power margin for voltage collapse
I. Dobson, L. Lu
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 8, no. 3, August 1993, pp. 905-913
Computation
of
closest
bifurcations
in
power
systems
F.L. Alvarado, I. Dobson, Y. Hu
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 2, May 1994, pp. 918-928
Sensitivity
of
Hopf
bifurcations
to
power
system
parameters
I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco
31st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, Tucson AZ, December
1992, pp. 2928-2933
Avoiding and suppressing oscillations, final report for PSerc project
I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco, P. Sauer, S. Greene, H.
Engdahl, J. Zhang
PSerc publication 00-01, December 1999, available from
http://www.pserc.wisc.edu/
Is strong modal resonance a precursor to power system oscillations?
I. Dobson, J. Zhang, S. Greene, H. Engdahl, P.W. Sauer
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 48, no. 3, March 2001,
pp. 340-349
Strong resonance effects in normal form analysis and subsynchronous
resonance
I. Dobson
Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control V, August 26-31, 2001, Onomichi,
Japan, pp. 563-574
Scaling
of
normal
form
analysis
coefficients
under
coordinate
change
I. Dobson, E. Barocio
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 19, no. 3, August 2004, pp. 1438-1444
Modifying
eigenvalue
interactions
near
weak
resonance
V. Auvray, I. Dobson, L. Wehenkel
IEEE International Symposium Circuits & Systems, Vancouver Canada,
May 2004, vol. 5, pp 992-995
Perturbations
of
weakly
resonant
power
system
electromechanical
modes
I. Dobson, E. Barocio
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 20, no. 1, Feb. 2005, pp.
330-337
Counterexamples
to
a
method
for
identifying
Hopf
bifurcations
without
eigenvalue
calculation
J. Arroyo, I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems-II, vol. 54, no. 5, May 2007, pp.
432-434
Sensitivity of transfer capability margins with a fast formula
S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 34-40, February 2002
Transfer capability
calculator and tutorial web site
I. Dobson, S. Greene, R. Rajaraman, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco,
M. Glavic, A. DeSouza, R. Zimmerman, R.J. Thomas et al.
Electric power transfer capability: Concepts, applications,
sensitivity, uncertainty
I. Dobson, S. Greene, R. Rajaraman, C.L. DeMarco, F.L. Alvarado,
M. Glavic, J. Zhang, R. Zimmerman, PSerc publication 01-34, November
2001
Quantifying transmission reliability margin
J. Zhang, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems,
vol. 26,
no. 9, 2004, pp. 697-702
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.05.002
Geometric
description
of
bridge
rectifier
operational
modes
using
regular
polygons,
I. Dobson
IEE Proceedings, Part A, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 85-88, January 1987
Damping
and
resonance
in
a
high
power
switching
circuit
I. Dobson, S.G. Jalali, R. Rajaraman
chapter in Systems and Control Theory for Power Systems
(eds. J.H. Chow, P.V. Kokotovic, R.J. Thomas)
IMA volume 64 in mathematics and its applications, Springer Verlag, pp.
137-156, 1995
Damping and incremental energy in thyristor switching circuits
R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson
IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, Seattle,
Washington, May 1995, pp.~291-294
Stability of ideal thyristor and diode switching circuits
I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 42, no. 9, September
1995, pp. 517-529
Switching time bifurcations in a thyristor controlled reactor
S.G. Jalali, I. Dobson, R.H. Lasseter, G. Venkataramanan
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 43, no. 3, March 1996,
pp. 209-218
Nonlinear dynamics and switching time bifurcations of a thyristor
controlled reactor circuit
R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson, S.
Jalali
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 43, no. 12, December
1996, pp. 1001-1006
Stability and nonlinear dynamics in thyristor and diode circuits
I. Dobson
Chapter 6 in Nonlinear Phenomena in Power Electronics:
Attractors, Bifurcations, Chaos, and Nonlinear Control
(eds. S. Banerjee, G.C. Verghese), ISBN 0780353838, IEEE Press 2001
Damping
estimates
of
subsynchronous
and
power
swing
oscillations
in power systems with thyristor switching devices
R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 11, no. 4, November 1996, pp. 1926-1930
Justification of torque per unit velocity methods of analyzing
subsynchronous resonance
and a swing mode in power systems
R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1
vol. 45, no. 10, October 1998, pp. 1109-1113
Modulator
for
resonant
link
converters
D.M. Divan, I. Dobson, G.A.
Luckjiff
US patent 5,619,406, April 1997
Hexagonal sigma-delta modulation
G.A. Luckjiff, I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits
and Systems- Part 1, vol. 50, no. 8, August 2003, pp. 991-1005
Hexagonal
sigma
delta
modulators
in
power
electronics
G. Luckjiff, I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Power Electronics, vol. 20, no. 5, September 2005, pp.
1075-1083
Formation
of
a
fractal
basin
boundary
in
a
forced
oscillator
I. Dobson
IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 866-872, June
1989
Truncated fractal basin boundaries in the pendulum with nonperiodic
forcing
I. Dobson, D.F. Delchamps
Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 4, 1994, pp. 315-328
Instability
tests,
Liapunov's
direct
method
and
exact
stability
boundaries
for
flexible
satellites
A. Mazzoleni, I. Dobson
Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, vol. 18, no. 3, May-June
1995, pp. 426-432
Chaos in a spacecraft passive attitude maneuver
due to time-periodic perturbations
G. Gray, I. Dobson, D.C. Kammer
Journal of Applied Mechanics, vol. 63, no. 2, June 1996, pp. 501-508
Heteroclinic bifurcations in rigid bodies containing internally moving
parts and a viscous damper
G. Gray, D.C. Kammer, I. Dobson, A.J. Miller
Journal of Applied Mechanics, vol. 66, no. 3, September 1999, pp.
720-728
Computing
a
closest
bifurcation
instability
in
multidimensional
parameter
space
I. Dobson
Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 3, no. 3, 1993, pp. 307-327
Distance to bifurcation in multidimensional parameter space:
margin sensitivity and closest bifurcations
I. Dobson
chapter in Bifurcation Control, Theory and Application, editors G.
Chen, D.J. Hill, X. Yu
Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, Vol. 293
ISBN 3-540-40341-8, Springer Verlag 2003
Mechanisms
for
nonthermal
effects
on
ionic
mobility
during
microwave
processing
of
crystalline
solids
J.H. Booske, R.F. Cooper, I. Dobson
Journal of Materials Research, vol. 7, no. 2, February 1992, pp. 495-501
last updated January 23 2010